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First signs of tropical development since Hurricane Beryl identified in the Atlantic

The tropics may start to pick up again, beginning the first few days of August

First signs of tropical development since Hurricane Beryl identified in the Atlantic

The tropics may start to pick up again, beginning the first few days of August

VISIBILITY. HEY, LET ME TAKE YOU OUT TO THE TROPICS AND SHOW YOU THAT THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN ARE NICE AND QUIET, NOT EXPECTING A BIG CHANGE TO THAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE ARE, HOWEVER, WATCHING IN THE ATLANTIC A TROPICAL WAVE THAT DOES HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES IN THAT KIND OF NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND OVER WATER TEMPERATURES THAT ARE IN THE MID 80S AS IT’S HEADED TOWARDS IT LOOKS LIKE THE TURKS AND CAICOS OR THE BAHAMAS RIGHT NOW. IT’S DEALING WITH SOME DRY AIR, WHICH IS LIMITING ITS ABILITY TO DEVELOP IN THE NEAR TERM, WHICH IS WHY IT’S PRETTY MUCH GOT A 0% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 2 TO 7 DAYS AS IT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE BAHAMAS, MAY RUN INTO SOME WIND SHEAR. WE’LL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT. BUT THAT MAY CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AND YOU KNOW, THE AMOUNT OF SAHARA DUST, WHICH HAS BEEN VERY SIGNIFICANT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS, NOT AS SIGNIFICANT TODAY AS AS WE’VE SEEN IT. SO HOPEFULLY THAT WILL CHANGE. BUT RIGHT NOW WE’VE GOT OUR EYES ON THIS THING AND WE’RE THINKING THAT IT’S GOT ABOUT A 60% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THIS AREA, PRIMARILY HAVING THE BIGGEST IMPACT, PERHAPS POSSIBLY ON DOM REP PARTS OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE BAHAMAS. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
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First signs of tropical development since Hurricane Beryl identified in the Atlantic

The tropics may start to pick up again, beginning the first few days of August

An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form mid to late week while the system is in the vicinity of the northern Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles, southwestern Atlantic Ocean or the southeastern Bahamas.The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a 60% chance of development over the next 7 days.It's way too early to narrow down any specifics at this time, but we will be watching for trends on this closely over the coming days.Typical August Development and TracksAugust is typically when the tropics start to increase in activity in general. The graphic below illustrates that tropical development is most likely in the eastern Caribbean and in the Bahamas, with tracks generally toward the west and west-northwest.

An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form mid to late week while the system is in the vicinity of the northern Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles, southwestern Atlantic Ocean or the southeastern Bahamas.

The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a 60% chance of development over the next 7 days.

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tracking the tropics
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60% chance for tropical formation within 7 days

It's way too early to narrow down any specifics at this time, but we will be watching for trends on this closely over the coming days.

Typical August Development and Tracks

August is typically when the tropics start to increase in activity in general. The graphic below illustrates that tropical development is most likely in the eastern Caribbean and in the Bahamas, with tracks generally toward the west and west-northwest.

august tropical development
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