Tropical forecasts show formation is possible within the next 7 days
A system that will team up with a tropical wave could develop into a tropical depression over the Greater Antilles by the weekend
A system that will team up with a tropical wave could develop into a tropical depression over the Greater Antilles by the weekend
A system that will team up with a tropical wave could develop into a tropical depression over the Greater Antilles by the weekend
There's a medium chance of tropical development in the Atlantic that could form into a tropical depression by the weekend.
TROPICAL ANALYSIS:
Right now, there isn't much to an area of widely scattered storms.
Forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) suggest a tropical wave could it a boost that would increase storm activity and give it a chance to become a tropical depression by the weekend. That cluster of energy will move into warm waters well into the 80s that's favorable for tropical development.
However, the NHC has noted the system/wave is right in the middle of some dry air that's also depicted by our Saharan dust analysis. This seems to be hindering storm development at this time.
FORECAST DATA:
One of our best forecasts for the tropics, suggests it will be more of a broad area of storm activity as it moves through the Greater Antilles this week.
By days 6 and 7, this computer forecast shows the system getting entrained into the clockwise circulation around the Bermuda high and moving it just off the southeastern coast of the U.S.
The forecast does not depict a very strong storm at all, but what's best about this solution is that it moves the storm towards the east coast of the U.S. and not into the Gulf of Mexico that would threaten us with possible landfall.
Looking at likely development zones at this time of the year, we still need to closely monitor this system.
Formation in July shows possible formation and tracks right where the NHC has the potential development zone.
You look at the favorable zones and tracks for August, and we see areas that threaten New Orleans.
SUMMARY:
Right now, a vast majority of the data show the system tracking towards South Florida, then getting pulled northward through the influence of the Bermuda high moving it just off the southeastern coast of the U.S.
This is right in line with the deterministic forecast shown above.
Right now, there is a VERY LOW CHANCE that Southeast Louisiana will be impacted by this storm.
However, be sure to keep up to date with all the latest forecast information through the WDSU First Warning Weather Team on all of our social media accounts, online here at wdsu.com, and on air.